TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,677 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No49c2,906$1,424 inWon+$1,482.19348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0b…7f60backed Yes51c980.39$500 inLost-$50050%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Yes51c727.45$371 inLost-$3719345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Yes50c541.12$271 inLost-$270.5632653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Yes51c444$226 inLost-$226.442245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No50c347.59$173 inWon+$174.951,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes51c151.1$77 inLost-$77.0617547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes51c121.57$62 inLost-$6210636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost-$5112850.8%65 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked No50c80.9$40 inWon+$40.452050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No50c60$30 inWon+$304261.9%26 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed Yes51c50.98$26 inLost-$265736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No50c50$25 inWon+$2566046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed Yes52c43.9$23 inLost-$22.8319952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes53c40.26$21 inLost-$21.2484443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$2028943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5575…c56dbacked Yes51c39.22$20 inLost-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No49c37.93$19 inWon+$19.3533049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes51c36.41$19 inLost-$18.577437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9197…e61fbacked Yes50c33.55$17 inLost-$16.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No48c31.82$15 inWon+$16.626957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes51c31.37$16 inLost-$1612451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6cf…1025backed Yes51c29.41$15 inLost-$154744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740d…2362backed No50c26.22$13 inWon+$13.11650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c9…3676backed No48c23.9$11 inWon+$12.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+49%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No50c20$10 inWon+$1033356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.