TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Will Vanderbilt win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,893 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf769…0114backed Yes1c78,640$883 inLost-$883.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes2c35,070$601 inLost-$600.516127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c29,744$284 inLost-$283.5216721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ddf…ab10backed Yes1c27,091$180 inLost-$180.221711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-65.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes1c15,000$135 inLost-$13590645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes1c14,915$164 inLost-$164.061020%2 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-29.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x551d…4afebacked Yes1c11,523$128 inLost-$128.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…c54cbacked Yes1c10,197$73 inLost-$72.963420.6%7 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes1c10,000$110 inLost-$110862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b95…6141backed Yes1c10,000$110 inLost-$11020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5815…4d68backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Yes1c9,440$117 inLost-$117.33250%16 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f65…0075backed Yes1c8,275$100 inLost-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2835…2b42backed Yes1c7,931$100 inLost-$1001266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb5f0…d345backed Yes1c7,596$82 inLost-$81.611643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick29cpaid-18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Yes1c7,539$48 inLost-$48.27270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x316b…03c5backed Yes1c6,878$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes1c6,811$84 inLost-$83.761,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes1c5,812$59 inLost-$59.344938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4b…df5abacked Yes1c5,649$35 inLost-$34.8280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,435$42 inLost-$42.457626.3%20 W · 56 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c4,320$44 inLost-$44.45147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-63.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…d1abbacked Yes1c3,936$50 inLost-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-83.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes1c3,873$36 inLost-$35.588232.9%27 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8cc…015bbacked Yes1c3,750$39 inLost-$39.138254.9%45 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8895…29a5backed Yes1c3,549$43 inLost-$42.5920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes1c3,062$31 inLost-$30.62170%0 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd295…f12ebacked Yes1c2,983$42 inLost-$42.341650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+69.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes1c2,709$27 inLost-$26.668230.5%25 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3498…1533backed Yes1c2,620$20 inLost-$20.111145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+41.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7794…8df9backed Yes1c2,585$35 inLost-$353324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x364b…f9bebacked Yes1c2,513$15 inLost-$14.99210%0 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes1c2,500$27 inLost-$2760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked Yes1c2,473$30 inLost-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-69.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c2,442$14 inLost-$13.931238.1%10 W · 113 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbb…8e8ebacked Yes1c2,274$27 inLost-$27.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e6…e2eabacked Yes1c2,224$22 inLost-$22.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c2,185$26 inLost-$26.38190%0 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes1c2,100$22 inLost-$22.272714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96eb…7ca6backed Yes1c1,954$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,902$19 inLost-$18.71230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65df…48e4backed Yes1c1,857$20 inLost-$19.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd121…99debacked Yes1c1,818$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked Yes1c1,739$21 inLost-$20.8790%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes2c1,591$39 inLost-$39.311838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8701…b7febacked Yes1c1,500$14 inLost-$13.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes1c1,006$15 inLost-$151346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes1c999.99$13 inLost-$132924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea84…f5d9backed Yes1c974$11 inLost-$10.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd4a…2553backed Yes1c959.99$12 inLost-$11.52119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-60.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.