TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,601 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e86…cb8fbacked Yes54c7,511$4,063 inLost-$4,062.961747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No45c4,356$1,973 inWon+$2,383.92,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes51c1,499$761 inLost-$761.2933049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No50c1,469$728 inWon+$740.082166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No51c1,365$693 inWon+$671.631,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No44c628.45$277 inWon+$351.9311145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No44c570$251 inWon+$319.224949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No50c555.19$277 inWon+$277.9539265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed No48c110$53 inWon+$57.24360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1187…20c4backed No54c101.85$55 inWon+$46.851060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd405…a049backed Yes56c99.98$56 inLost-$55.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes39c99$38 inLost-$38.3930842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes37c88$33 inLost-$32.911,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Yes48c68.23$33 inLost-$32.7522453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No44c68.18$30 inWon+$38.1814953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd828…4cb1backed Yes49c60.63$30 inLost-$29.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes46c59.85$28 inLost-$27.5317946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed No48c49.99$24 inWon+$2633949.9%169 W · 170 L-1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed No50c26.89$14 inWon+$13.3337652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed No52c22$11 inWon+$10.563256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No50c20$10 inWon+$1041050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.