TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf9bb…38f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.4
Raptors vs. Pelicansbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Magic vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$21.55
Clippers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+167%+$119.38
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+67.1%+$20.13
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Jazz vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+222.6%+$44.52
Thunder vs. Knicksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+44.2%+$14.66
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+25%+$5
Thunder vs. Raptorsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Warriors vs. Pelicansbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
Celtics vs. Sunsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$9.85
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+66.3%+$16.45
Bulls vs. Bucksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Lakers vs. Knicksbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$68
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$40.88
All 25 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Carlos Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.4
BNP Paribas Open: Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draperbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.8
BNP Paribas Open: Joao Fonseca vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Jannik Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$4.3
BNP Paribas Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+29.9%+$14.94
BNP Paribas Open: Zachary Svajda vs Marin Cilicbacked Marin Cilic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20
BNP Paribas Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Adrian Mannarinobacked Adrian Mannarino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$40
BNP Paribas Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Gabriel Diallobacked Gabriel Diallo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Tigre 2: Guido Justo vs Alvaro Guillen Mezabacked Meza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+49.6%+$22.29
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Jenson Brooksbybacked Daniil Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Mexican Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfilsbacked Monfils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+63.9%+$9.59
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.