TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x073f…4da1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.99
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.21
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$88.44
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.64
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$48.88
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.31
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$22.83
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$24.73
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.85
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$14.62
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$14.47
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$19.42
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$12.98
Magic vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$25.72
Spread: Suns (-3.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.93
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$20.72
All 17 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Utahbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.99
Hurricanes vs. Senatorsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$7.55
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.68
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$21.9
Wild vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$22.83
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.82
Kraken vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.19
Kings vs. Flamesbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.16
Kraken vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$11.04
Rangers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.85
Avalanche vs. Flamesbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$18.76
Penguins vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$11.25
Jets vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$17.52
Stars vs. Maple Leafsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$6.33
Sabres vs. Blackhawksbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$29.66
All 16 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+94.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Falcons win IEM Rio 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.23
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$21.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.81
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$16.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Charles Jourdain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+80.6%+$55.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$16.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.38
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.