NBA · resolved market
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe76784ea0bc923c1e491b1f72bccb8e4ba6d2d16a4798abd0dc58b070c0da33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 43c | 2,064$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.69 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yes | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 784 | 45.8%359 W · 425 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 56c | 319.91$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.35 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked No | 46c | 218.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…374bbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 147.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 34c | 136.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 42c | 115.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed No | 42c | 103.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 59c | 100.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Yes | 57c | 88.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…e97cbacked Yes | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…76fdbacked Yes | 73c | 86.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 58 | 87.9%51 W · 7 L | +13.6wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 41c | 70.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56e…a853backed Yes | 73c | 59.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +12.5wins | +0.29per pick | 64cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes | 39c | 56.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…ca48backed Yes | 46c | 42.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 41c | 42.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed Yes | 59c | 40.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 59c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 45c | 37.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 45c | 31.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…c160backed Yes | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…5c76backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -9.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked No | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…e653backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 59c | 16.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Knicks won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Knicks won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Knicks vs. SpursKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 101.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 122.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 98.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 194.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 195.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 196.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-16.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Spurs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.