TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c76…c926backed No43c2,064$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.692,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Yes57c600$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34278445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009950.5%50 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes56c319.91$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3556050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked No46c218.94$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9418748.1%90 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…374bbacked Yes57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes16c147.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1642842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No34c136.73$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4733049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes57c122.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No42c115.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2424949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed No42c103.45$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603964.1%25 W · 14 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+56.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes59c100.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5712850.8%65 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e8…1c01backed Yes57c88.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.187451.4%38 W · 36 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc067…e97cbacked Yes57c88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.162638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x802e…76fdbacked Yes73c86.94$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.475887.9%51 W · 7 L+13.6wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No41c70.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.761,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56e…a853backed Yes73c59.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.364393%40 W · 3 L+12.5wins+0.29per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1466046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d13…44bcbacked Yes39c56.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.171526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2958754.7%321 W · 266 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.56150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No76c48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.441,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes60c44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.430842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3008…ca48backed Yes46c42.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No41c42.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9153842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes61c40.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257561.3%46 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed Yes59c40.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8919952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.617547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes59c38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.421,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No45c37.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd69e…3393backed Yes57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205048%24 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked No45c31.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5315753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d9…c160backed Yes58c31.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.75754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No45c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8536153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc78b…5c76backed Yes56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155736.8%21 W · 36 L-9.1wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-30.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc78d…0bbdbacked No44c26.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea1…6072backed Yes57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524566.9%164 W · 81 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd31a…e653backed Yes54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.56347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes59c18.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe4…e7f5backed Yes58c18.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52755.6%15 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Yes59c16.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 94. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.