TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x100b…b67a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 58 out of 100; worst Cricket at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2850%14 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+61.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$63
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.55
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+91.2%+$62
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+108.3%+$52
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+1,438.5%+$187
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+46.6%+$15.73
Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$34.05
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+85.2%+$9.2
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$18.98
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$125
Over $6M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$61.36
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$16.9
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+51.5%+$102
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$44.3
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$19.48
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+25%+$27.82
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$44.69
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$35.3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+72.2%+$139.44
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+784.6%+$156.99
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$22.07
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+157.8%+$380.63
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$142.4
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$6,056Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+41.6%+$2,518.5
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Flames vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$7.39
Jets vs. Krakenbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$10.57
Ducks vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Golden Knights vs. Sabresbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 5 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$13.5
Clippers vs. Hawksbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$9.08
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$13.3
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+61.1%+$6.17
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3)backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$21.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+270.2%+$149.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nationals vs. Bravesbacked Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will New Zealand win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.