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Wallet 0x204b…8ca3
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x204b382df532a8106768ccceaf699a89c4ed8ca3
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$180,938 staked over 927 qualified picks in 19 categories, 14 of 19 below 50.
Best category
Commodities
$45,494 staked over 681 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.07 per pick.
See the full Commodities boardSecond best
Middle East
$370 staked over 6 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Middle East boardThird best
Token Launches
$23 staked over 1 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.02 per pick.
See the full Token Launches boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$2,302.9 tailing 415 Commodities picks (262 W · 153 L) at $50 each: +11.1% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Commodities picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category19 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Commoditieslast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $45,494 | —no start of play | 20 h 24to the end, median over 1,299 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 15 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08115% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 115% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 236 of 681 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 681 | 58.3%397 W · 284 L | +49.3 | +0.07 | 51c | +2.6% | 58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $370 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2288% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 88% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5 | +0.24 | 42c | +54.7% | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Token Launcheslast settled Sep 24, 2026, EDT | $23 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.49100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5 | +0.49 | 51c | +94.8% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Venezuela Inactivelast settled Jan 15, 2026, EST | $67 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.35101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3 | +0.34 | 66c | +52.4% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| IPO Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $148 | —no start of play | 5 dresells, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1 | +0.01 | 19c | -17.7% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Tweets Inactivelast settled Sep 1, 2026, EDT | $133,552 | —no start of play | 23 h 18to the end, median over 216 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 93 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 141 of 190 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 190 | 22.6%43 W · 147 L | -0.2 | 0.00 | 23c | -33.5% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Sep 14, 2026, EDT | $144 | —no start of play | 4 h 58to the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.04 | 54c | -31.9% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Lol Inactivelast settled Apr 5, 2026, EDT | $392 | —too few: 7 picks | 4 h 29to the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2 | -0.03 | 46c | -26.6% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $10 | —no start of play | 9 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.20 | 20c | -100% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Earnings Inactivelast settled Aug 26, 2026, EDT | $11 | —no start of play | 2 h 35to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.22no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.22 | 22c | -100% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Aug 28, 2026, EDT | $13 | —no start of play | 14 h 41to the end, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.29no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3 | -0.25 | 25c | -100% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 11, 2026, EDT | $59 | —too few: 1 pick | 34 minresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.28no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3 | -0.30 | 30c | -100% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| AI Inactivelast settled Sep 21, 2026, EDT | $109 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4 | -0.05 | 34c | -32% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Aug 24, 2026, EDT | $22 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.44no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4 | -0.44 | 44c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Valorant Inactivelast settled Aug 30, 2026, EDT | $29 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.29no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6 | -0.29 | 29c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Weather Inactivelast settled Aug 29, 2026, EDT | $268 | —too few: 6 picks | 12 h 30to the end, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7 | -0.10 | 24c | -80.2% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast settled Sep 4, 2026, EDT | $32 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.36no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7 | -0.36 | 36c | -100% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| CS2 Inactivelast settled Jul 31, 2026, EDT | $68 | —no start of play | 15 dto the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.25no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7 | -0.25 | 25c | -100% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| World Politics Inactivelast settled Oct 5, 2026, EDT | $129 | —no start of play | 2 dto the end, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1 | -0.13 | 38c | -43.8% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 63
- What they are worth now
- $2,328bought for $2,361
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 63, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 365 | 76c | 96c | $350 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 300 | 80c | 97c | $290 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 400 | 55c | 64c | $254 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 294 | 75c | 64c | $187 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $148 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 153 | 73c | 94c | $144 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 120.95 | 80c | 97c | $118 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 120 | 83c | 98c | $117 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 100 | 92c | 99c | $99 |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 100 | 57c | 99c | $99 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in October? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 100 | 40c | 98c | $98 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x457c…93cbbacked outcome 0 | 1,000 | 0c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0xebe4…7d17backed outcome 0 | 375.9 | 23c | $0 | Not read yet |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on July 9? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 349.96 | 0c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0x467b…f8bbbacked outcome 0 | 325.72 | 31c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0xf8f3…74abbacked outcome 1 | 250 | 27c | $0 | Not read yet |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 never will. TailMyPicks scored that market, and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar: too small, bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 4 are not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.