TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0eaf…a1f3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: AI, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category AI at 51 out of 100; worst IPO at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT2766.7%18 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$41.42
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.26
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$67.78
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.7
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$71.3
Spread: Celtics (-16.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
Timberwolves vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$6.47
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Knicks vs. Rocketsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Clippers vs. Pacersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$21.5
Pelicans vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$308
Timberwolves vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Magic vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$24.6
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$44.94
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.98
Pelicans vs. Kingsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+58.7%+$22.2
Mavericks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$48
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$114
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+49.3%+$69.3
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+49.3%+$264
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,909Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,908.8
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$780
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$807Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$806.6
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$8.1
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$539
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26
Mexico vs. England: O/U 6.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$89.61
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$130
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$111
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+49.3%+$24.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$18.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+37%+$7.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pump.fun hit $0.01 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$11.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.