TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdd55…7a4e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst World Politics at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT2070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$35.14
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$28.26
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$67.97
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$79
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$28.11
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+66%+$131.99
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$36.07
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$28.5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$35.59
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+184.4%+$154.89
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+59.6%+$297.83
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$25
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+35%+$34.96
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$148
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$50.4
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$46.6
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$100.25
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.45
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Hornets (-13.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.7%+$77.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$19.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.