TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0c90…c649

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Champions League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2524%6 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.66
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.5
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.5
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+310.6%+$378.24
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.8
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.5
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.84
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$325.55
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,143.19
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.22
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.4
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+139.6%+$84.58
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+222.8%+$470.06
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$26.33
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+300%+$449.99
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+49.3%+$75.9
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$17.2
Will the US strike Iran next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$28.25
All 25 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Norway leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Harry Kane: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.45
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+176.2%+$159.5
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$91
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$52
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$54.02
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+138.1%+$69.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.