TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Seahawksof Seahawks, Patriots
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$136,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,056 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked Patriots47c100,849$47,401 inLost-$47,400.85154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Seahawks53c54,037$28,640 inWon+$25,397.5516955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Seahawks53c38,680$20,444 inWon+$18,236.4573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Seahawks53c14,333$7,596 inWon+$6,736.4210462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4a8…2587backed Patriots49c9,345$4,625 inLost-$4,625.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Seahawks49c7,958$3,930 inWon+$4,028.7812055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Seahawks51c4,900$2,499 inWon+$2,4015149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Patriots48c4,167$2,000 inLost-$2,00010648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Patriots54c3,463$1,870 inLost-$1,8701414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd57d…80d0backed Patriots5c2,519$126 inLost-$125.93825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Seahawks76c2,051$1,551 inWon+$500.134555.6%25 W · 20 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Seahawks55c2,000$1,100 inWon+$90022142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Seahawks53c754.72$400 inWon+$354.722941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92b8…9592backed Patriots47c685.76$322 inLost-$322.3147.1%1 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-84.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Patriots48c625$300 inLost-$3004944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Seahawks53c418$220 inWon+$198.4919152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Patriots46c369.57$170 inLost-$170425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Seahawks71c270.56$192 inWon+$78.8268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d56…d62ebacked Patriots37c191.23$70 inLost-$70.373129%9 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4503…af53backed Patriots10c150$15 inLost-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Patriots30c120$36 inLost-$3640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b1…fb4bbacked Patriots13c116.67$15 inLost-$15757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Patriots11c100$11 inLost-$111225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bfa…bc94backed Patriots37c82$30 inLost-$30.343622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd18…a458backed Seahawks70c71.44$50 inWon+$21.444156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Seahawks61c70$43 inWon+$27.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3349…8a3ebacked Patriots48c63.08$30 inLost-$30.28825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-55.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…7b83backed Patriots29c60$17 inLost-$17.460%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Patriots48c58.33$28 inLost-$288035%28 W · 52 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5501…e914backed Patriots48c55.92$27 inLost-$26.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Seahawks55c54.03$30 inWon+$24.422532%8 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7402…3ac2backed Seahawks66c35$23 inWon+$11.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6fc…07e3backed Seahawks54c23.63$13 inWon+$10.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd88d…254dbacked Seahawks68c19$13 inWon+$6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.