TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,105 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb581…0308backed Yes41c300$123 inWon+$17756050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No59c273.69$161 inLost-$161.481,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No47c241.95$114 inLost-$113.7233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Yes37c199.99$74 inWon+$12678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Yes53c166$88 inWon+$78.0220558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf158…5eeabacked No63c142.85$90 inLost-$90728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked Yes53c75.95$40 inWon+$35.73551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed No63c69.53$44 inLost-$4421843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71b7…adb1backed Yes39c64.36$25 inWon+$39.362748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No61c63.52$38 inLost-$38.4785449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b7…bc65backed No63c57.14$36 inLost-$362050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes36c44.53$16 inWon+$28.542842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked No59c26.31$16 inLost-$15.5215753.5%84 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No60c17.5$11 inLost-$10.590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 84. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.