TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb55a…d290

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 53 out of 100; worst CS2 at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
CS2 — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group Abacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+69.5%+$10.42
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$30.64
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1)backed Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3)backed NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe (BO3)backed Fluxo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3)backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+143.9%+$28.78
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO1)backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: B8 vs PARIVISION (BO1)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs RED Canids (BO1)backed Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+69.5%+$17.37
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs M80 (BO1)backed M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+150%+$15
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.33
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$40.94
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+116.9%+$116.91
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.11
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$44.84
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$31.24
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Zama launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$34.75
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+86%+$86.01
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+36.3%+$36.27
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$19.87
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.58
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$11.43
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$19.99
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+128.7%+$64.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+150%+$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PAOK vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.