TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x55c8…b44e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NBA, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 52 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,916Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,915.77
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$788Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+331.3%+$2,609.71
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$490.24
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,673Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$1,316.55
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.82
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.06
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.61
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.68
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$949Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$949.18
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$466.67
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$180.89
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.84
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$82.58
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.24
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.1
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.5
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.96
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$266.58
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$537.77
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+265.7%+$805.55
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$213.37
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.32
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+69.1%+$138.17
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,491Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+700%+$10,436.51
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,605Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,605.21
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.72
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$779.27
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$117.46
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$112.5
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$330
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.78
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advancebacked Japan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.88
All 17 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,907Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,907.41
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$47.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$363Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$362.65
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$380.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$537Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$536.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.