TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf2f2…0b2d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2025, EST4050%20 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Capitals vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Sharks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Hurricanes vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Red Wings vs. Flyersbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+132.6%+$26.51
Lightning vs. Maple Leafsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Flyers vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Penguins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Oilers vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Rangers vs. Utahbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Blackhawks vs. Predatorsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Flames vs. Bluesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Canadiens vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Kraken vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.85
Flyers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Devils vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Red Wings vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Capitals vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Oilers vs. Wildbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Hurricanes vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST+170.3%+$34.05
Rangers vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Canucks vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2025, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick56cpaid-36.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Kings vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Celtics vs. Lakersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Kings vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Raptors vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Trail Blazers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Suns vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST+150%+$15
Thunder vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Lakers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST+212.5%+$21.25
Suns vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+100%+$20
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.03
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$8.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Yemen by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+48.6%+$7.29
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed Gold · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+68.5%+$116.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$166.03
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.