TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf6f5…42c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 53 out of 100; worst UFC at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT6254.8%34 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 62 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$70
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Colombia to score first vs. Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$55.71
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Portugal vs. Spain: Portugal O/U 3.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$58.24
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.73
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+130.8%+$39.24
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$32.19
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$21.54
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$13.46
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 62 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT2147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Benoît Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Mario Bautista · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$41.43
UFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Lone'er Kavanagh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$91.11
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.41
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Israel Adesanya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Terrance McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Ignacio Bahamondes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Movsar Evloev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$6.74
UFC Fight Night: Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Michael Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.44
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$13.23
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Raul Rosas Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+38.2%+$13.37
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Xiao Long · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Alberto Montes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+56.3%+$5.63
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)backed Souza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$10
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$17.49
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$88
All 21 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$28.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+102.2%+$18.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barriosbacked Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+44.5%+$11.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.