Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a5f68bfa8e08f2fd422c533c5318a049397ac2c6cb19489d9055d2a855fc616

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	8c	229.23$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked Yes	11c	198.4$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	6c	189$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	80c	111$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.2	75	52%39 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	13c	110.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	28c	102.16$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.15	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	16c	95.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	13c	81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	68c	76.14$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.52	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7420…fc53backed Yes	19c	57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-3.1wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	36c	55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4607…7811backed Yes	26c	45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed No	76c	42.73$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cea…ffd2backed No	65c	35$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	84	51.2%43 W · 41 L	-8.8wins	-0.10per pick	62cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd11a…5ffdbacked No	69c	28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.68	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+3.7wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+47.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Moisés Caicedo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event