Will Rúben Dias score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x453f068da0c46bdfbd80c2e6bbd759365cb003d9a2c3e4e6bf765fad3cfad1e3

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,290 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	3c	365$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	11c	349.24$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	31c	324.52$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked Yes	28c	323.07$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.97	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	72c	250$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d38…3bd9backed Yes	18c	245.53$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.17	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Yes	7c	212.81$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	920	38.5%354 W · 566 L	-21.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	69c	200$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	75	52%39 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes	18c	120$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	82	18.3%15 W · 67 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	20c	75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	73c	70$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	27c	54.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.69	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	73c	39.95$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.79	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No	69c	39.52$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	70c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c1…28f3backed No	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	76c	24.57$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.99	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	71c	23.57$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.8	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…3024backed No	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rúben Dias score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event