Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909e02baa8670362fb239b1c504586158a740d008720e40192a92b37ee51c91a

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,124 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x551d…9326backed Yes	39c	378.6$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.6	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e69…a4b5backed Yes	31c	324.15$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224.15	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	75c	303.55$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.47	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	69c	201.17$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.13	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	68c	149.75$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.8	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16fc…b16bbacked Yes	21c	106.22$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.91	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae9…facabacked Yes	20c	104.76$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.76	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc104…f24fbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No	63c	99.99$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	70c	99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.86	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes	19c	80$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.8	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	19c	70$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.7	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	71c	70$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.7	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	79c	67.17$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.9	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fd…9963backed Yes	30c	66.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.67	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	68c	64.55$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.88	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a30…b094backed Yes	37c	54.05$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.05	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	62c	52$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.24	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0855…ae26backed No	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d82…3a1bbacked No	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe673…b3d9backed Yes	31c	42.12$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.24	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	62c	38.81$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.13	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	33c	34.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.93	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed No	64c	28.18$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-9.0wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9fbd…d0e7backed No	70c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x023d…3431backed No	63c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	73c	15.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No	69c	15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-11.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event