NFL · resolved market
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15c63cfc82e32b39ac5306e9bc8edd8a8ebef1ff9e21083a94986cf4949351b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 39c | 129,682$50,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,825.86 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Over | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 61c | 63,422$38,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,699.95 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Under | 61c | 49,104$29,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,107.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Under | 70c | 6,217$4,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.29 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 68c | 6,169$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 24c | 6,073$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.57 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Under | 61c | 4,889$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 62c | 4,795$2,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 60c | 3,716$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 32c | 3,129$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.35 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 39c | 1,101$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b00…8693backed Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Under | 64c | 800$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 68c | 753.2$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.84 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Over | 28c | 486.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 73c | 413.72$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.03 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…7b07backed Over | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d670backed Over | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Over | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Over | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Under | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…2ed2backed Under | 25c | 200$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.53per pick | 27cpaid | +192.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked Over | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +6.9wins | +0.30per pick | 35cpaid | +91%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Over | 39c | 194.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 62c | 163.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 28c | 146.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 41c | 142.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 40c | 122.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…42c1backed Under | 62c | 117.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Over | 40c | 106.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…b665backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…61e3backed Under | 75c | 68.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 50.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Over | 40c | 38.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…afd5backed Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 85. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5this page
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)Seahawks won
- 1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)Seahawks won
- AJ Barner: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- AJ Barner: First TouchdownAJ Barner won
- AJ Barner: Rushing Yards O/U 0.5Under won
- Cooper Kupp: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Cooper Kupp: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Cooper Kupp: Receiving Yards O/U 29.5Over won
- Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5Over won
- Hunter Henry: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Hunter Henry: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Hunter Henry: Receiving Yards O/U 37.5Under won
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Receiving Yards O/U 90.5Under won
- Kayshon Boutte: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Kayshon Boutte: Receiving Yards O/U 0.5Over won
- Kenneth Walker III: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Kenneth Walker III: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Kenneth Walker III: Receiving Yards O/U 101.5Under won
- Kenneth Walker III: Rushing Yards O/U 80.5Over won
- Mack Hollins: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Mack Hollins: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Mack Hollins: Receiving Yards O/U 28.5Over won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 10.5Over won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 15.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 16.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 17.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 20.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 21.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 23.5Under won
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 29.5Under won
- Rashid Shaheed: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Rashid Shaheed: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Rashid Shaheed: Receiving Yards O/U 22.5Over won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Receiving Yards O/U 20.5Over won
- Rhamondre Stevenson: Rushing Yards O/U 56.5Under won
- Sam Darnold: Rushing Yards O/U 239.5Under won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 17.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 20.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 22.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 24.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 25.5Over won
- Seahawks Team Total: O/U 26.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. PatriotsSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylineSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 22.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 24.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 27.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 29.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 30.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 31.5Over won
- Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 32.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.