TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,530 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked No53c1,225$647 inLost-$647.3920155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes47c1,000$470 inWon+$53084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No48c650.33$312 inLost-$312.3733049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Yes52c475$247 inWon+$2289345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ee…b517backed Yes50c398.04$200 inWon+$198.047441.9%31 W · 43 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No50c300$150 inLost-$1501,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.398843.2%38 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes48c200$96 inWon+$10456050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed No54c199.98$108 inLost-$107.9940053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No48c160.39$77 inLost-$77.4985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No51c137.72$70 inLost-$70.241,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No45c127.27$57 inLost-$57.4618235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes49c102.04$50 inWon+$52.0410636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes47c90$42 inWon+$47.715351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed Yes46c70$32 inWon+$37.84360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No53c62.01$33 inLost-$32.7560267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac50…d728backed Yes51c51.33$26 inWon+$25.33650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dd…812fbacked Yes51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9288…be38backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.74742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe35…6789backed Yes53c37.41$20 inWon+$17.4115054.7%82 W · 68 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No57c30$17 inLost-$17.13551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes48c29.42$14 inWon+$15.247437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No47c24.42$11 inLost-$11.3826957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No49c23.66$12 inLost-$11.592,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No54c20$11 inLost-$10.896956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ab…e652backed Yes50c20$10 inWon+$104235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 84. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.