TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5e2…5048

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 64 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3984.6%33 W · 6 L+7.9wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$17.84
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$29.35
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$24.47
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Argentina leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$8.53
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$6.76
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$43.01
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+68.8%+$20.69
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.87
France leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$9.41
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.75
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will England win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.55
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Türkiye leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Germany leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+106.6%+$15.98
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+63.2%+$22.14
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Anna Kalinskaya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Pablo Carreno Busta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashimabacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+80.7%+$13.4
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmicbacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$9.59
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frechbacked Magdalena Frech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensikbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Vicenza: Mika Brunold vs Massimo Giuntabacked Mika Brunold · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$8.78
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+79.8%+$9.57
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$19.52
Real Oviedo vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.16
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.57
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$24.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.28
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.83
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 9 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick66cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$8.56
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.79
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brøndby IF vs. FC København end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$16.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$16.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.23
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.