Will João Cancelo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3035dc8aee246f10004bde4dee6c2b3eabd29a1e1ea95b4d3d5989ecdbb3ffa4

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,624 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x551d…9326backed Yes	32c	400$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	68c	399.99$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7789…a280backed No	80c	389.5$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.4	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	73cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	204$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	13c	165$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	12c	154$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes	33c	153.88$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.99	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	21c	134.72$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.15	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x064f…e6b8backed No	70c	67.47$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.24	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes	34c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.2	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	65c	59.43$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	20c	53.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	20c	52.5$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	36c	50.28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	119	45.4%54 W · 65 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	32c	44.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed No	66c	44.76$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	67c	42.82$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.26	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed No	68c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	67c	36.23$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.89	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb326…d18bbacked Yes	30c	35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c26…1694backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc049…d4b9backed No	68c	29.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.41	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	69c	25.93$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.04	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will João Cancelo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event