Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c74bcc93c171744df3c03940a63c3b7fc9c7249e3e7691375d38662e7c03eb0

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,440 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09df…5ca9backed No	15c	2,248$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.15	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed No	14c	1,048$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.2	76	21.1%16 W · 60 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	14c	999.94$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.99	125	34.4%43 W · 82 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	14c	618.11$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.53	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd1ca…0f21backed No	14c	468.81$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.51	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57bd…3595backed No	11c	388$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.68	75	26.7%20 W · 55 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No	12c	369.09$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.29	47	29.8%14 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	11c	274.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed No	15c	265.16$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No	13c	248.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.31	96	43.8%42 W · 54 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No	17c	235.45$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c5…0500backed No	12c	226.33$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked No	13c	198.74$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a91…3392backed No	15c	170$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+3.3wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+54.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8726…797cbacked No	14c	149.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…0b0ebacked No	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	14c	135.14$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No	14c	113.81$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb842…330ebacked No	9c	112$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	63	46%29 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cec…dbffbacked No	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.17per pick	29cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed No	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	399	51.6%206 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e55…c88dbacked No	13c	99.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	60	21.7%13 W · 47 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82b3…0c0ebacked No	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	135	31.9%43 W · 92 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9680…60babacked No	14c	80$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd280…9611backed No	14c	74.29$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfd5…044abacked No	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event