Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f5636aa2b32780b7f01b4ac46a2dffd18eb018be1a14117935df25d3ea08281

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,842
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,842 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	63c	441.69$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.25	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No	38c	394.65$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.97	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	41c	335.54$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.69	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	69c	273.98$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.79	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f0…b2efbacked No	31c	230.63$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.33	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	60c	220.02$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.01	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ed…310ebacked Yes	62c	202.42$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.92	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc049…d4b9backed Yes	42c	191.07$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.07	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5b…7744backed No	58c	173.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No	41c	166.11$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.34	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No	54c	116.92$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.06	624	52.7%329 W · 295 L	+10.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	49c	115$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.6	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed Yes	62c	112.23$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.65	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85	168	54.8%92 W · 76 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed No	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	97	23.7%23 W · 74 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc104…f24fbacked No	42c	99.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	27c	82.08$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x360e…8069backed No	30c	81.9$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97b3…4a85backed Yes	62c	80$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	310	46.5%144 W · 166 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	58c	79.96$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.38	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1da…0370backed No	39c	76.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfa…0093backed No	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	49c	58.91$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.63	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No	69c	58.73$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.52	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	54c	52.92$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.58	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes	46c	32.69$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.65	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	47c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked No	42c	30.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x783e…5a19backed Yes	44c	28.46$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.88	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86a0…2f95backed No	54c	20.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd51d…1578backed Yes	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed Yes	70c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-9.0wins	-0.25per pick	64cpaid	-35%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0xaa74…78b9backed Yes	69c	19.98$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.19	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-9.0wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	67c	19.98$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.59	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event