TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5d96…f5b7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$11.11
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.28
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$17.01
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$15.45
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$10.8
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+38.7%+$24.56
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$4.37
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.35
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.42per pick54cpaid-84%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+103.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.9
Blues vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.18
Red Wings vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$6.42
Blue Jackets vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Bruins vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+89%+$13.36
All 5 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+75.1%+$11.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First Round Pool A: Cuba vs. Colombiabacked Cuba · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$8.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BNP Paribas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacksbacked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.