TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x87cc…7971

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 51 out of 100; worst World Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$123.2
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.2
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$66.3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$42.82
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$89.3
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.6
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.6
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$41.8
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$27.97
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46%+$34.65
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$17.06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$23.57
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.75
All 19 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$77.44
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.9
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.6
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$51.86
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$35.2
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$14
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$30.45
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$45.74
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$47.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$20.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$42.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.