TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf896…3cc6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst CS2 at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$62.22
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40%+$17.14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$35.47
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$79.17
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+182.8%+$36.55
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+117.4%+$41.09
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+416.3%+$124.9
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+69.5%+$24.32
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.56
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.75
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.88
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. USC Upstate Spartans: O/U 144.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$29.74
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. George Washington Revolutionaries: O/U 157.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$26.37
Spread: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (-6.5)backed Florida Gulf Coast Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+77.7%+$26.94
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-9.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+100%+$39.65
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators: O/U 169.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+83.1%+$37.06
CSUN Matadors vs. UC Riverside Highlanders: O/U 157.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.65
Liberty Flames vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: O/U 140.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$24.78
BYU Cougars vs. West Virginia Mountaineers: O/U 141.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$44.61
BYU Cougars vs. West Virginia Mountaineers: O/U 139.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$44.61
Furman Paladins vs. Western Carolina Catamounts: O/U 148.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$54.52
East Tennessee State Buccaneers vs. Mercer Bears: O/U 151.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$36.11
Akron Zips vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: O/U 165.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$52.38
All 16 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Berlin International Gaming (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffsbacked Eintracht Spandau · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$11.67
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5)backed Nongshim Esports Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+85.9%+$21.48
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffsbacked Nongshim Esports Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+212.5%+$106.25
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffsbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$95
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffsbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$13.87
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5)backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs BNK FEARX (+2.5)backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffsbacked Deep Cross Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Deep Cross Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffsbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$24.23
All 12 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wild vs. Golden Knightsbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+96.1%+$38.43
Blues vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Avalanche vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Blue Jackets vs. Rangersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+74.2%+$37.1
All 4 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.