Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x424e181b5f69eb625525bc7c03abda80bea85f7d208dbd557ecc560971aacf06

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,127 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x551d…9326backed Yes	43c	359.07$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.07	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed No	57c	353.3$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.26	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d5b…7744backed No	57c	351.06$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x095b…25cabacked Yes	41c	308$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	54c	287.47$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.05	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	57c	279$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.03	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes	29c	262.42$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.55	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	53c	242.87$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.62	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	44c	222.72$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.72	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes	49c	200.77$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.87	173	40.5%70 W · 103 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked No	12c	166.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	669	32.1%215 W · 454 L	+16.8wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	56c	132.98$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.68	75	52%39 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	54c	120$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.23	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cee…ffeabacked Yes	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.16per pick	28cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Yes	42c	100$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe58b…d323backed Yes	25c	99.99$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.99	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	60c	83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.52	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes	38c	77$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.74	199	58.3%116 W · 83 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7083…53ecbacked Yes	45c	67.23$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.23	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked No	57c	61.4$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes	51c	57.5$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.17	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes	60c	57.2$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.88	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d82…3a1bbacked No	69c	55$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.95	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec1…b807backed Yes	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	42c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf975…4354backed No	57c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	58c	48$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5118…6dd3backed Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	46c	38.62$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.85	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No	55c	35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf82a…7c35backed No	56c	31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	66cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a9…0c9abacked No	71c	30$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	56c	29.07$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No	56c	21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	163	36.2%59 W · 104 L	-9.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88ad…9e5fbacked No	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed No	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25bd…30a1backed No	73c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	75	62.7%47 W · 28 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event