Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e1dc284ea9b8828d471ce1b84d7ad9d1de05f37dfcd941c9e6deee7d1e10f1

Rebuilt 2 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,711 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb27f…2c41backed Yes	54c	521.62$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.84	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed No	41c	499.98$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.99	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Yes	59c	479.24$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.49	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+5.3wins	+0.20per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	60c	416.67$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.67	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	48c	313.55$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.05	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed No	43c	212.76$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	51c	199.82$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.52	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes	49c	179.53$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.29	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	40c	157.08$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.83	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	49c	139.98$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.12	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed Yes	61c	133.13$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.49	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed No	44c	126.04$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.88	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe673…b3d9backed Yes	52c	110$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.9	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed No	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed No	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed Yes	48c	99$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.48	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No	54c	93.73$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x064f…e6b8backed Yes	51c	92.03$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.09	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	51c	87.6$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	35c	71.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No	46c	62.63$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+4.4wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	46c	57.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.35	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes	42c	55.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.53	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	54c	47$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.66	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	42c	42.63$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	53c	42.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.59	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	49c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	40c	32.34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab56…e635backed No	48c	31.51$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	160	52.5%84 W · 76 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked No	39c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	234	29.1%68 W · 166 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes	60c	19.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event