TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x56be…88fe

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Suns vs. Raptorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Pelicans vs. Clippersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Trail Blazers vs. Hornetsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+185.7%+$185.71
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Kings vs. Mavericksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+233.3%+$233.33
Trail Blazers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Hornets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Wizards vs. Hawksbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+170.5%+$170.46
Hornets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT2326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Saint Louis Billikensbacked George Washington Revolutionaries · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.27
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigersbacked Mississippi State Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.33
SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.29
USC Trojans vs. Washington Huskiesbacked USC Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.2
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcatsbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+203%+$201.46
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Richmond Spidersbacked Loyola Chicago Ramblers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$192.59
LSU Tigers vs. Kentucky Wildcatsbacked LSU Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.4
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpackbacked Pittsburgh Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.25
Albany Great Danes vs. Vermont Catamountsbacked Albany Great Danes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$99.36
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. UCF Knightsbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+376.2%+$374.01
Dayton Flyers vs. Richmond Spidersbacked Richmond Spiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$198.44
Toledo Rockets vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked Toledo Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$99.38
UMBC Retrievers vs. NJIT Highlandersbacked NJIT Highlanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$198.45
Tennessee Volunteers vs. South Carolina Gamecocksbacked South Carolina Gamecocks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$99.42
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersbacked New Mexico State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$99.24
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irishbacked Notre Dame Fighting Irish · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+268.7%+$266.88
Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jacketsbacked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$99.24
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocksbacked Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$99.36
Maine Black Bears vs. Albany Great Danesbacked Maine Black Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+226.6%+$224.9
Bryant Bulldogs vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked Bryant Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$59.7
Rice Owls vs. Tulane Green Wavebacked Rice Owls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Fairfield Stags vs. Quinnipiac Bobcatsbacked Fairfield Stags · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+234.2%+$234.22
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineersbacked Canisius Golden Griffins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+137.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Maple Leafs vs. Sabresbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Rangers vs. Wildbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+194%+$194.04
Canadiens vs. Senatorsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+178%+$177.96
Maple Leafs vs. Lightningbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Flyers vs. Capitalsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 6 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.9%+$1,089.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$979.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,210.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.