TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x596a…aa14

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst CS2 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.8
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+380.4%+$213.8
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.49
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$14.04
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.04
Will Almanak FDV above $80M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$627.23
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.7
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.2
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.35
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$7.03
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Georgia Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,280
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,310Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$1,190
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks: O/U 164.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,410Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,590
All 3 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+53.9%+$47.94
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$106.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+40.7%+$11.09
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$92.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$21.15
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$20.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$47.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+44.9%+$6.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$15.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$33.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$45.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.