Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5987072c1f462a727c8b0b0c9cde6889c0071bbbd3ef4a37dd3656749711f169

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,096

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,726 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	64c	719.5$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.17	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	29c	587.52$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$416.81	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	71c	430$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes	69c	349.99$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.49	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	61c	240$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.4	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	64c	220.1$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.54	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No	35c	190$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.86	44	38.6%17 W · 27 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	36c	177.54$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.97	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	67c	170$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.4	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No	28c	167.86$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.86	88	44.3%39 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No	33c	150$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.9	55	61.8%34 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	69c	132.39$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.35	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed No	25c	120$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.83	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Yes	65c	100$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed Yes	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	70c	98$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.19	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	69c	80$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	51c	77.75$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.17	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	70c	76.38$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.72	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	72c	75$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc049…d4b9backed Yes	66c	68.18$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	42c	65.89$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.22	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	45c	60$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	68c	57$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.72	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No	29c	52.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.28	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked No	32c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed No	68c	49.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes	68c	40$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	80c	37.61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	33c	35.98$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.11	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	33c	31.75$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.4	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	69c	30$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	71c	26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	64c	24.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed Yes	71c	20$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event