Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6c4096e30cdc9fa167e0960e56cc6698f5caaf78399df1ca7945095fe96b20

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,952 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	6c	1,749$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.75	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae2b…daa8backed No	73c	1,664$1,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$449.12	131	57.3%75 W · 56 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed Yes	2c	1,050$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f1a…7a49backed Yes	37c	877.02$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.85	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c59…11acbacked Yes	5c	631.09$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Yes	14c	599.5$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.36	113	54%61 W · 52 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	14c	513.29$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.35	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	21c	493.22$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.6	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	4c	442.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe0…83c7backed Yes	6c	400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	48c	389.61$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.78	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbadd…7518backed Yes	3c	341.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed No	69c	337.09$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.96	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	27c	310$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.5	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	17c	261.63$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.32	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked Yes	10c	247.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	240.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5026…dde1backed No	55c	181.59$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.59	79	38%30 W · 49 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	62c	160$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.1	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4de5…e874backed Yes	50c	130.33$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.65	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed No	48c	125$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.45	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes	44c	119.4$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8af7…8dd2backed No	22c	101.95$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+7.2wins	+0.36per pick	19cpaid	+146%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	32c	97.96$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.35	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fb…9bebbacked Yes	48c	92.71$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	43c	90.85$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.07	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	57c	84.35$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.01	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…4f29backed Yes	37c	80$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed No	51c	79.45$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.69	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cb3…60d2backed Yes	50c	66.67$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.34	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes	28c	56.28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd2…7a92backed Yes	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.34per pick	26cpaid	+187.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	28c	52.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	50c	51.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.86	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes	38c	51.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.83	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	32c	49.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0855…ae26backed Yes	35c	47.2$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70b2…5805backed Yes	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	156	35.9%56 W · 100 L	-12.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d3…fd3bbacked Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8fe…4474backed Yes	50c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc318…d82abacked Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x69d3…5c15backed No	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.58	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+61%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event