Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b524443d9b9569cd285fe6fa84a224531aeb215002f2bea7f295b5af07ea80f

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,336

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8d85…f4e0backed No	46c	879.3$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.82	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+5.3wins	+0.20per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes	9c	581.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	14c	278.01$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	5c	254$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes	7c	198.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	77c	196.5$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.14	75	52%39 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc049…d4b9backed Yes	36c	150.11$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.7	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	63c	131.09$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.29	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes	54c	115.08$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.14	166	46.4%77 W · 89 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	45c	110$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed Yes	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f92…ecc7backed Yes	54c	87.93$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.48	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-48%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b25…ff39backed Yes	54c	81.53$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.03	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c26…1694backed Yes	38c	73.68$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1f…6465backed Yes	54c	63.15$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	136	41.2%56 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	78c	49.39$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.74	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	63c	41.1$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.35	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb92a…f51cbacked Yes	54c	40.61$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.93	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	56c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No	35c	40$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	72c	37$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.27	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaaab…b2fcbacked Yes	43c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	54c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34a…71bbbacked No	63c	20.63$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.63	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.4wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event