Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8316d5b3cbd3a92e130a27a93c8eaf8faa29a09b3b3287787b621686889f9f5

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $74,751
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,751 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3402…9446backed No	4c	3,000$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No	4c	2,921$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.94	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed No	4c	2,800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.1	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f77…5ad9backed No	1c	2,411$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	1c	2,275$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	80	3.8%3 W · 77 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ab…bbdcbacked No	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	63cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9070…e32cbacked No	3c	1,789$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No	1c	1,442$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	3c	1,406$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.14	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa136…9977backed No	1c	1,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-94.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15ad…1143backed No	1c	1,267$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9a…587ebacked No	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd565…69a4backed No	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No	2c	1,217$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	1c	1,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No	4c	1,030$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.14	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25ba…1eabbacked No	2c	763.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	-3.9wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No	2c	690.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e84…a101backed No	4c	461.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4f…04bbbacked No	3c	454.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	9c	400$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.9	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2e6…38febacked No	4c	385.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0205…82f1backed No	9c	366.67$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	4c	351.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8ef…0656backed No	4c	349.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf33…b5f8backed No	4c	310$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	200	17%34 W · 166 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd389…8378backed No	4c	279.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff8f…87e1backed No	4c	238.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event