Fifa International · resolved market
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb9f8af2767fa217f65b2a970a9ec46f88fcf3a96e94421a3b51bc8cda1e12a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $590,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $618,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $590,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8658…f20fbacked No | 0c | 161,630$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.26 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 20,014$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 512 | 28.9%148 W · 364 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2f…b61bbacked No | 0c | 10,048$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…859abacked No | 3c | 7,676$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 1c | 5,424$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 199 | 29.1%58 W · 141 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4f…04bbbacked No | 2c | 5,233$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed No | 2c | 5,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c1…bc55backed No | 2c | 4,400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…b900backed No | 2c | 4,149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 3c | 3,988$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7a…0c40backed No | 4c | 3,693$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…df6fbacked No | 3c | 3,522$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked No | 1c | 3,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 127 | 29.9%38 W · 89 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 1c | 3,403$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad9…dd28backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 25cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked No | 4c | 1,665$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 3c | 1,662$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe9…d22ebacked No | 3c | 1,519$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,518$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 3c | 1,499$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 269 | 40.9%110 W · 159 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 2c | 1,489$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…9977backed No | 1c | 1,400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 1,400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 2c | 1,340$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +8.8wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…797cbacked No | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e6…38febacked No | 1c | 1,185$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x575c…8396backed No | 2c | 1,125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…5b3ebacked No | 3c | 1,100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed No | 4c | 1,100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 3c | 1,030$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 236 | 40.3%95 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 956.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 126 | 6.3%8 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…6301backed No | 2c | 882.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…0e07backed No | 2c | 850.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…54aabacked No | 4c | 844.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382e…732fbacked No | 3c | 799.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 2c | 749.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 2c | 699.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2471…7796backed No | 2c | 648.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 3c | 585.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 14.3%51 W · 305 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 584.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 578.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 202 | 1.5%3 W · 199 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 2c | 516.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…2943backed No | 4c | 509.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…7813backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 3c | 470.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…ee7abacked No | 3c | 402$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…d073backed No | 3c | 370.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…a7a6backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9f…cff6backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
- Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.