Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62623e36db475ec25adf71f602ec64dab863e906365e7b27804f8e72a85e7dbe

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $230,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $233,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,303 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8658…f20fbacked Yes	6c	16,500$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes	4c	12,446$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.97	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	5cpaid	+141.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef7c…74ebbacked Yes	9c	11,636$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Yes	7c	10,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.99	133	31.6%42 W · 91 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Yes	7c	7,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	192	52.1%100 W · 92 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Yes	3c	3,838$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.62	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	7c	3,740$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.07	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…bb84backed Yes	5c	3,299$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.88	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+13%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	7c	2,999$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.58	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes	8c	2,982$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.54	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8d…f822backed Yes	3c	2,829$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.33	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a61…e424backed Yes	4c	2,335$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	3c	2,311$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.38	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Yes	5c	2,292$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.53	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	10c	2,196$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,167$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.86	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes	9c	1,891$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	137	29.9%41 W · 96 L	-12.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	5c	1,642$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.04	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	6c	1,532$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.46	63	3.2%2 W · 61 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	10cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x751b…5d1bbacked Yes	7c	1,500$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Yes	3c	1,358$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	379	19.5%74 W · 305 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	4c	1,245$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8418…efe0backed Yes	5c	956.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ab…cbc4backed Yes	3c	895.87$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	5c	860.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.28	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…0393backed Yes	5c	832.1$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.76	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	800$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f03…1794backed Yes	5c	769.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.4	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	6c	734.08$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.02	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb6…6fe2backed Yes	3c	733.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	209	11%23 W · 186 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…7464backed Yes	3c	727.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b1c…8621backed Yes	4c	700$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d97…9c26backed Yes	3c	612.16$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b1…98fabacked Yes	3c	571.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189d…a248backed Yes	6c	533.8$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	5c	522.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes	3c	520.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	147	38.1%56 W · 91 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fa7…57debacked Yes	3c	517.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77d4…3983backed Yes	7c	500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	-7.7wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ae1…6abdbacked Yes	6c	500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16f1…e1d1backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	138	46.4%64 W · 74 L	-10.7wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	5c	498.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	4c	494.93$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	6c	463.33$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.63	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb92…68a4backed Yes	4c	452.54$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-5.5wins	-0.12per pick	31cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x853a…a20ebacked Yes	6c	445.43$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes	11c	433.58$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.15	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-4.7wins	-0.14per pick	40cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes	4c	405.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xceb9…177dbacked Yes	12c	404.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	8c	398$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.84	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4865…622dbacked Yes	7c	397.84$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	5cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	6c	374.68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed Yes	5c	352.28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.31	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a8…9abdbacked Yes	6c	342.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbd30…ff53backed Yes	8c	326.66$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	293.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.83	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab7…fb0bbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	6c	238.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	320	44.1%141 W · 179 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea7f…759cbacked Yes	6c	228.07$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	6c	216.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.94	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51b…7176backed Yes	8c	212.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63b4…7e30backed Yes	5c	201.53$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b0f…3476backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	179	38%68 W · 111 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes	6c	190.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	426	40.1%171 W · 255 L	-7.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf8d…048cbacked Yes	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	7c	151.61$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed Yes	9c	141.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d21…59f7backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9f…c3dbbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fc…7169backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x685c…b626backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1554…fe50backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	281	48.4%136 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	147	50.3%74 W · 73 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event