Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb1bcc07313aefb781b5e6426625e525d4071c93d2115a558808ef4495da50a4

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $282,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $307,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,341 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes	15c	48,411$7,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,047.45	221	39.8%88 W · 133 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…7abdbacked Yes	15c	29,409$4,534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,533.71	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x087d…b872backed Yes	16c	20,429$3,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,239.1	98	45.9%45 W · 53 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Yes	15c	10,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	133	31.6%42 W · 91 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Yes	14c	7,200$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	12c	6,380$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747.31	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes	15c	3,542$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	67	61.2%41 W · 26 L	+6.0wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed Yes	11c	3,447$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.4	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	13c	3,212$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.38	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed Yes	13c	3,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.99	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	4c	2,977$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.47	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes	3c	2,820$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.05	825	37.1%306 W · 519 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…1365backed Yes	2c	2,661$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Yes	5c	2,396$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.8	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes	16c	1,875$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	16c	1,832$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8d…f822backed Yes	5c	1,818$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.9	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	2c	1,695$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.42	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	3c	1,608$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.19	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb6…6fe2backed Yes	13c	1,349$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	209	11%23 W · 186 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf7a…0c40backed Yes	5c	1,330$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.52	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4512…c4a9backed Yes	3c	1,257$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.34	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes	16c	1,138$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	88	44.3%39 W · 49 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed Yes	9c	1,083$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.61	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…9705backed Yes	2c	1,055$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	10.2%5 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	2c	1,045$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…ec6abacked Yes	5c	1,004$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	78	24.4%19 W · 59 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	3c	871.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	10c	868.67$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.76	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	728.6$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	4c	649.64$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.19	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	6c	644.29$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.93	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f67…5bbabacked Yes	5c	575.3$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Yes	13c	574.71$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.71	76	21.1%16 W · 60 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa683…14e3backed Yes	4c	534.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes	12c	498.94$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.87	82	40.2%33 W · 49 L	-4.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6acb…06bdbacked Yes	13c	479.96$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.85	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes	5c	463.12$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	166	46.4%77 W · 89 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	458.32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	212	39.6%84 W · 128 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a6…6d18backed Yes	4c	457.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	12c	436.76$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.29	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes	15c	413.76$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.33	89	36%32 W · 57 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	4c	391.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	356.43$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.34	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes	5c	346.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	134	37.3%50 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeff…e9abbacked Yes	14c	314.19$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes	14c	292.54$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.96	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed Yes	4c	286.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	186	41.9%78 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63eb…d3a6backed Yes	14c	276.71$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.95	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes	10c	260$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	22cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa754…4e7abacked Yes	14c	249.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked Yes	5c	216.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8328…feb3backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x781f…8a5abacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5344…7dc1backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b0…427ebacked Yes	13c	199.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	11c	157.86$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49e1…a8bdbacked Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	17.6%22 W · 103 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb2db…140abacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+8.8wins	+0.17per pick	41cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ed4…a408backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7e…6bdabacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed Yes	16c	99.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	12c	84.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	14c	72.45$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22c5…4177backed Yes	16c	63.44$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event