Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e0edf13c676c05379882d01980fb360b7885884d56c57f228cd306018efb3d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $177,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $178,725

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,204 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe72b…b0a0backed No	15c	33,447$5,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,006.59	221	39.8%88 W · 133 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x381b…4d74backed No	14c	23,799$3,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,331.86	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…7abdbacked No	15c	16,200$2,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,430	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No	16c	6,666$1,067 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066.55	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No	13c	6,026$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x087d…b872backed No	15c	5,000$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	98	45.9%45 W · 53 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b8…dd8bbacked No	5c	4,089$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	66	53%35 W · 31 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e4…85c4backed No	3c	4,044$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-79.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	4c	3,516$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.64	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No	13c	2,716$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.39	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No	4c	2,556$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.12	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No	17c	2,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.99	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72cb…341fbacked No	4c	1,852$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed No	15c	1,560$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	103	26.2%27 W · 76 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	12c	1,240$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.82	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	9c	1,093$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.58	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3a…d724backed No	3c	1,066$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No	2c	800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3465…7082backed No	4c	800$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…1365backed No	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	3c	637.49$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	13c	573.09$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.32	341	51%174 W · 167 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	2c	525.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd6…52b6backed No	15c	513.33$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd42e…e152backed No	5c	502.6$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked No	2c	502.54$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	3c	433.79$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1d…4fe9backed No	14c	420.51$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	28cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed No	12c	394.36$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.94	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Yes	79c	334.83$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.31	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8328…feb3backed No	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8418…efe0backed No	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf64e…52fbbacked No	15c	333.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	64	34.4%22 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked No	14c	333.33$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.67	709	48.9%347 W · 362 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No	15c	329.85$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.78	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad37…dbd6backed No	15c	320$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	17cpaid	-81.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x032d…7168backed No	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe094…fe93backed No	19c	300$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5344…7dc1backed No	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf683…9b71backed No	14c	247$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.58	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0860…81c7backed No	20c	245.22$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+98.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…bcc2backed No	21c	214.29$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…a33abacked No	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa136…9977backed No	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-94.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	6c	186.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae8…8c95backed No	18c	167.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	42cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ed…8168backed No	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	101	49.5%50 W · 51 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0281…f0debacked No	17c	147$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0777…4b7fbacked No	16c	133.88$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd671…634cbacked No	15c	126.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb160…58cebacked No	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	17c	107.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.31	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ab…cbc4backed No	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd0f…a925backed No	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked No	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	150	43.3%65 W · 85 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked No	15c	72$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked No	17c	64.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	1,019	31.6%322 W · 697 L	-10.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a7…21abbacked No	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	67.5%27 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event