Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x260688608f7d98c9cc5755228dbf4a04eb72c13308e603ba697b5f1ff4e8fe68

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,350
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,350 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5213…6a35backed No	8c	5,625$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	8c	4,279$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.29	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No	8c	3,438$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba1…2646backed No	11c	3,086$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed No	13c	2,304$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.61	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed No	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.99	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-5.4wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3dd…975fbacked No	1c	1,633$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.43	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1942…9a54backed No	3c	1,540$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.28	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	188	48.9%92 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No	10c	1,252$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.2	406	49.8%202 W · 204 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	10c	1,082$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.13	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No	13c	1,027$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.5	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No	12c	999.98$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadf0…5dbfbacked No	3c	841.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefe8…e0f2backed No	11c	790.83$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.99	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	10c	621.68$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.83	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x757f…517fbacked No	3c	597.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No	10c	574.47$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.54	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No	9c	512.31$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed No	11c	499.98$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	9c	481.92$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.37	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc5…6aa4backed No	3c	469.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	114	12.3%14 W · 100 L	-4.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	9c	465.86$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.93	341	51%174 W · 167 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No	8c	458$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.64	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	8c	452.02$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.01	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked No	10c	342.52$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No	12c	279.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	5c	250$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	9c	236.08$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	8c	203.42$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	8c	199.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	27c	150$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No	10c	108.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed No	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	225	43.1%97 W · 128 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e2…7cc7backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9139…30a9backed No	20c	94.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+5.1wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	73c	65$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x054d…27bfbacked Yes	72c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event