Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea45b0916e7ff547035047d0bd72502c1d1431c6196215f532741e14f997317

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $168,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $183,557

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,510 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes	9c	23,349$2,115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,114.8	108	33.3%36 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Yes	13c	16,167$2,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,101.73	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Yes	11c	10,338$1,141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,140.61	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Yes	12c	10,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.99	133	31.6%42 W · 91 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	3c	8,706$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.22	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	2c	5,433$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.66	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Yes	13c	3,929$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.77	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes	11c	2,888$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.64	241	44.8%108 W · 133 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Yes	5c	2,663$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.34	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.9	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes	3c	1,837$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.93	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	12c	1,533$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.05	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes	12c	1,306$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.76	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	13c	1,300$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes	14c	1,150$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.5	127	29.9%38 W · 89 L	+7.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,143$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Yes	5c	1,084$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.32	178	28.1%50 W · 128 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-25%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb7e…28ddbacked Yes	2c	1,082$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.63	89	36%32 W · 57 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c7…c0e2backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes	3c	800$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf79…dfb4backed Yes	3c	740.22$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88cf…924dbacked Yes	14c	721.38$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74a9…0dc7backed Yes	14c	714.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	78	53.8%42 W · 36 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd41…8761backed Yes	12c	580$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.6	300	40.3%121 W · 179 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	5c	526.3$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x481d…9098backed Yes	10c	511.28$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.13	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed Yes	11c	498.24$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.81	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…7b80backed Yes	9c	466.96$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.03	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Yes	4c	463$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	179	45.3%81 W · 98 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed Yes	9c	446.16$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.57	46	28.3%13 W · 33 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	3c	419.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	410.47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.87	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…ef6abacked Yes	13c	400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	101	30.7%31 W · 70 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cee…5a38backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	14c	369.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed Yes	4c	363.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	256	38.7%99 W · 157 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes	14c	321.43$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	-7.7wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	3c	320.15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5026…dde1backed Yes	13c	307.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	79	38%30 W · 49 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Yes	13c	306.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	12c	306.6$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.79	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	5c	260.81$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	7c	260.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.81	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Yes	13c	259.51$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.74	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Yes	10c	236$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	76	21.1%16 W · 60 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Yes	11c	225.4$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	709	48.9%347 W · 362 L	+12.6wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeff…e9abbacked Yes	10c	220.49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	9c	173$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed Yes	11c	140$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes	13c	119.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	73	38.4%28 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	281	48.4%136 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c4f…ca52backed Yes	14c	80$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	39cpaid	+30%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x054d…27bfbacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event