Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2deac4e9149d7933e977be2a572b46d427b5b52308553e385a42c8e9855ba536

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $682,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $687,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $682,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8658…f20fbacked No	0c	130,650$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.8	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d2e…9f22backed No	0c	76,255$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.51	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x576f…ed2cbacked No	0c	42,620$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.24	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1158…0dc0backed No	9c	10,617$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	82	20.7%17 W · 65 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked No	11c	10,001$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,095.52	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1bc…e269backed No	0c	6,588$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	8c	4,871$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.71	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked No	0c	3,498$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked No	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	181	39.2%71 W · 110 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	8c	2,776$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.39	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c2…198cbacked No	8c	2,500$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.61	56	7.1%4 W · 52 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c88…8570backed No	4c	2,467$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.67	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	1c	2,125$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	80	3.8%3 W · 77 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No	9c	1,925$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.46	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No	2c	1,912$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.39	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed No	8c	1,911$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.91	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb563…ddbbbacked No	2c	1,626$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	35cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	7c	1,537$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.57	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	9c	1,515$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.15	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	7c	1,439$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.01	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	5c	1,403$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.31	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed No	9c	1,311$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.26	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked No	4c	1,181$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.14	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No	10c	1,143$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.86	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed No	9c	1,097$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	396	48.7%193 W · 203 L	-23.6wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	8c	1,043$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.8	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No	12c	1,027$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.54	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f0…f925backed No	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	2c	873.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.67	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa641…0866backed No	13c	848.15$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa68d…095dbacked No	11c	823.64$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30cb…2cc3backed No	3c	750$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe832…036bbacked No	9c	699.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	7c	697.49$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.37	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	18c	650$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.5	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed No	7c	635.07$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.45	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1c…f754backed No	8c	627.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.24	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf7a…0c40backed No	8c	559$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.72	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf24f…15b2backed No	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	129	32.6%42 W · 87 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked No	9c	511.24$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.01	165	40.6%67 W · 98 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No	6c	500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked No	9c	496.88$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.09	206	52.9%109 W · 97 L	+14.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e9b…5ba4backed No	11c	461.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd771…489fbacked No	19c	461.63$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.71	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2277…6604backed No	9c	456.96$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.13	186	41.9%78 W · 108 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b68…dbb4backed No	11c	442.01$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	21cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	6c	390$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1965…c7a6backed No	9c	388.89$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e50…8d90backed No	9c	375$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8919…d64ebacked No	9c	350.24$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.52	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2534…0099backed No	9c	342.33$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.81	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa136…9977backed No	9c	340$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-94.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	10c	322.33$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.64	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed No	8c	318$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	178	28.1%50 W · 128 L	-8.5wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-25%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd2…7260backed No	10c	306$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2a…87eebacked No	10c	304.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.05	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+41.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	8c	263.17$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed No	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	356	14.3%51 W · 305 L	-14.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No	11c	241.93$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.79	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1f…6465backed No	9c	234.16$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.07	136	41.2%56 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed No	9c	233.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9090…8d5abacked No	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa741…8d0ebacked No	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x938d…19fcbacked No	7c	188.57$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb609…6e88backed No	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	11cpaid	+279.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4512…c4a9backed No	8c	175$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x208a…75cabacked No	8c	175$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fd…92a1backed No	12c	171.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb223…3772backed No	11c	169.86$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf2…0eb3backed No	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No	7c	160$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	163	33.7%55 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f0…672bbacked No	9c	147$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f92…ecc7backed No	9c	118.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.8wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-48%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf301…dd70backed No	10c	108.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed No	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	225	43.1%97 W · 128 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x245f…877bbacked No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	21cpaid	-88.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ba…9ce9backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x054d…27bfbacked Yes	79c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event