Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x765c607f355d16dcab5ac2cdd29a37779d1428a071b866bf767badc62346ec6c

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $105,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,715

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc474…7b96backed No	3c	15,763$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab83…5415backed No	3c	9,685$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.71	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed No	7c	8,071$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.97	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	3c	7,626$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.22	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed No	8c	3,706$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.44	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-3.4wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	1c	2,275$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	80	3.8%3 W · 77 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No	9c	2,008$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.69	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	188	48.9%92 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc29…f1bbbacked No	3c	1,432$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-89.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No	9c	1,340$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.6	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed No	9c	1,120$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	103	26.2%27 W · 76 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No	10c	1,028$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.8	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	1c	932$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e88…0c70backed No	2c	837.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4f…04bbbacked No	2c	833.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	4c	693.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	30c	650$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.5	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb475…978cbacked No	8c	612.5$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes	70c	600$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	71	56.3%40 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	2c	540.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	12c	510$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	200	36%72 W · 128 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed No	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c4…f3e2backed No	2c	499.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb223…3772backed No	9c	472.07$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No	9c	318.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	681	41.1%280 W · 401 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x385c…a385backed No	4c	314.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	10c	257.64$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.61	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfa03…e33ebacked No	9c	256.22$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.06	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa741…8d0ebacked No	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed No	8c	249.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-6.0wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked No	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd76…b935backed No	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	39%16 W · 25 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0860…81c7backed No	11c	154.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+98.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed No	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe472…f580backed No	9c	116.67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…65c9backed No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	277	29.2%81 W · 196 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x054d…27bfbacked Yes	71c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.5	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc348…2a83backed Yes	77c	21.74$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event