Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f814a95b780d7e8b14e9a8ce9d34f7afa1b25be62830aefb3781a6aa9afbf16

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $256,675
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $278,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,675 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x381b…4d74backed No	2c	70,000$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No	3c	50,228$1,506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,505.68	83	57.8%48 W · 35 L	+6.7wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf344…9a04backed No	3c	24,960$849 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848.64	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	1c	4,104$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No	3c	3,430$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.05	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	2c	3,030$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.44	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed No	3c	2,613$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No	2c	2,225$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.02	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No	2c	1,999$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.45	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60c1…bc55backed No	5c	1,704$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca00…2256backed No	3c	1,521$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.98	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	1c	1,199$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc29…f1bbbacked No	3c	1,179$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.45	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-89.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No	4c	1,030$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.2	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7133…edd9backed No	1c	838.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No	3c	834.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-4.2wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x385e…d6bdbacked No	4c	821.61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	-31%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	3c	755.2$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	3c	746.58$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	3c	720.18$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa8d9…48a6backed No	4c	666$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked No	4c	650$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No	4c	599.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7db…6688backed No	3c	578.82$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	167	40.7%68 W · 99 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc349…82d7backed No	3c	531.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e6…38febacked No	3c	520.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked No	3c	498.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	188	48.9%92 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…2eafbacked No	3c	487.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No	3c	468.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa136…9977backed No	3c	460$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-94.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed No	4c	438.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No	3c	399.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No	3c	386.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4f…04bbbacked No	4c	379.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd21b…6903backed No	4c	360$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba43…2267backed No	4c	339.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945e…e42abacked No	4c	243.9$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No	7c	199.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event