Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94cac3a7ff4e968e68674c8dff21d74df39c9519291db5e4628486f977b1cad5

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $727,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $697,726

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,179 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x576f…ed2cbacked No	0c	212,229$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.46	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2275…fb3cbacked No	0c	60,924$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.85	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	2c	32,999$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.84	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked No	5c	20,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	108	33.3%36 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	2c	10,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	3c	4,160$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.33	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No	0c	3,957$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed No	4c	3,587$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.69	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No	4c	3,181$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.3	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7762…309ebacked No	3c	2,711$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.69	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	3c	2,177$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.83	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No	4c	1,999$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.39	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x914d…41cabacked No	3c	1,954$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No	6c	1,771$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.59	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No	2c	1,680$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No	5c	1,601$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.09	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked No	5c	1,586$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.21	173	40.5%70 W · 103 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	134	37.3%50 W · 84 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7f…ca07backed No	8c	1,310$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	35cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	3c	1,288$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.54	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed No	6c	1,275$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	356	14.3%51 W · 305 L	-14.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x475a…ca2dbacked No	8c	1,181$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked No	1c	1,180$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	5c	1,114$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.33	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No	5c	1,100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.4	184	33.7%62 W · 122 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No	3c	1,030$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed No	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…8f77backed No	4c	999.95$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5933…ecb7backed No	5c	926.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	130	35.4%46 W · 84 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed No	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	379	19.5%74 W · 305 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No	5c	759.2$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.21	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0056…ee7abacked No	6c	757.03$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.22	81	24.7%20 W · 61 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	5c	713.3$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	5c	652.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.76	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4f…04bbbacked No	5c	620.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+45.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No	4c	570.72$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	4c	566.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a9…1652backed No	4c	560.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ac…eab5backed No	7c	528.55$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.96	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-82.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac9f…cff6backed No	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8216…6c5bbacked No	5c	500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-75%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa136…9977backed No	5c	499.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-94.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	6c	498.69$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.61	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked No	5c	425.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb4f…b335backed No	4c	416.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1c…8621backed No	6c	399.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e6…38febacked No	4c	395.64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf26d…93adbacked No	8c	393.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3844…7285backed No	3c	391.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-81.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	4c	382.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No	4c	350$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	6c	318.91$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	5c	318.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8d…f822backed No	7c	315.92$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-4.5wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked No	5c	308.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd402…8c7bbacked No	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-50%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf90…e485backed No	7c	260$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd33c…a724backed No	5c	230$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	63	28.6%18 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafbb…87bebacked No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9666…2830backed No	7c	169.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5310…cef0backed No	6c	167.48$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event