Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bac5bbce7d0ef0a0e036fea1eb9ec66835c9795a553e766fa305b3a8b065d93

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $156,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $144,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,709 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1341…0853backed No	9c	20,051$1,737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,736.93	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe4…8970backed No	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed No	1c	11,052$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.71	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	13c	6,437$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.88	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xab83…5415backed No	2c	6,145$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.28	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	11c	6,084$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.74	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0333…d37cbacked No	3c	4,132$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+86.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No	14c	3,997$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.61	129	45%58 W · 71 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked No	16c	3,500$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e88…0c70backed No	2c	2,946$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	1c	2,075$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	80	3.8%3 W · 77 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6faf…de48backed No	17c	1,816$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	202	24.8%50 W · 152 L	-15.8wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No	2c	1,656$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.68	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed No	17c	1,560$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.2	103	26.2%27 W · 76 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5afa…a53cbacked No	2c	1,513$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed No	16c	1,499$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.87	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed No	16c	1,308$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No	1c	1,194$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed No	2c	1,100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No	16c	1,050$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.88	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	15cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4e7…b0f7backed No	2c	983.92$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1c4…f3e2backed No	2c	917.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf19…6402backed No	15c	884.03$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.08	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe89c…3d99backed No	3c	830.04$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	3c	730$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.36	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55dc…19a3backed No	2c	665.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa919…85e9backed No	19c	626.32$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…7f19backed No	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a9…1652backed No	17c	576.47$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	28c	515.99$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.64	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked No	15c	499.98$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No	15c	499.96$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.99	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.16per pick	20cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed No	17c	478.71$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.38	50	26%13 W · 37 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No	2c	462$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked No	8c	424.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.55	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No	12c	423.97$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.25	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2471…7796backed No	14c	390.31$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.64	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	6c	349.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x914d…41cabacked No	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No	6c	293$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	8c	286.34$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.25	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4205…128ebacked Yes	80c	275$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	41	22%9 W · 32 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf72…1535backed No	17c	252.94$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No	17c	249.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55a4…4d0abacked No	16c	247.84$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee0…1adebacked No	20c	240$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked No	15c	210$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	72c	200$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes	73c	199.99$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	71	56.3%40 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb223…3772backed No	17c	174.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	155	50.3%78 W · 77 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed No	16c	154.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.76	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked No	11c	150.09$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	179	45.3%81 W · 98 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1715…dbe9backed No	17c	147.41$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	89	49.4%44 W · 45 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd671…634cbacked No	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	0%0 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2057…3c10backed No	16c	118.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x184f…e0b2backed No	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3011…4f5bbacked No	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	13.9%5 W · 31 L	-5.0wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb147…beedbacked No	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	263	43%113 W · 150 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054d…27bfbacked Yes	71c	105$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.45	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6216…1bd4backed No	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked No	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d4a…4256backed No	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b04…fcc9backed No	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d7…4952backed No	17c	94.49$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	15c	70.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…7493backed No	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c85…7260backed No	17c	64.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6acb…06bdbacked Yes	78c	30.91$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.86	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 48 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event