Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc77f4d08f50d86a1df6f8bfb449686fa3cbb98b0dbab703cc13c5cf96ba87432

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0a2d…6db9backed No	22c	444.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	81	39.5%32 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No	20c	334.5$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.9	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5494…faacbacked Yes	78c	318.49$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.49	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Yes	80c	150$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	561	51%286 W · 275 L	+15.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5555…823bbacked Yes	80c	99$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	50	64%32 W · 18 L	+6.1wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	21c	83.27$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ca…0f21backed Yes	78c	81.47$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No	21c	75.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	23c	64$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b30…100fbacked No	22c	49.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	78c	46$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.95	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	22c	45.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc104…f24fbacked Yes	72c	44.47$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.45	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	77c	44.25$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.18	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	77c	41.7$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	65c	33.88$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	75c	33.82$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.45	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	77c	29.15$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.7	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53b4…cef0backed Yes	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Yes	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06c…5681backed Yes	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ee…79a9backed Yes	78c	19.23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.23	120	60%72 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event