TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3363…c1b4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+50.4%+$12.1
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+133.9%+$133.88
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+159.9%+$71.96
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+161.9%+$155.5
Over $2M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+53.8%+$43.08
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$260.6
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$121.01
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30.5
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+41.6%+$181.7
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$17.7
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+30.3%+$28.64
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13.39
Brevis FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$79.72
Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+38.9%+$19.44
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+94.6%+$37.84
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+30.5%+$16.75
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+586.6%+$205.3
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$24.7
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+182.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+49.3%+$20.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$152
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.